1. Military-political situation in the world and general characteristics of threats to the security of the Russian Federation.

2. The system of military threats to the country's security.

The Russian Federation, which is an object of increased interest and certain claims on the part of other countries, found itself on the eve of the third millennium in the center of radical geopolitical changes of an economic, socio-political and military nature. The new alignment of military and political forces in the world, especially in Europe, has disrupted the old foundations of stability, changed the nature, scope and content of dangers and threats that are becoming more complex.

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The military-political situation in the world is developing under the influence of two main contradictory trends.

Overcoming the global military confrontation, strengthening confidence in the military sphere and expanding interstate cooperation, the process of reducing the armed forces, nuclear and conventional weapons that has begun, contribute to significantly reducing the threat of global nuclear and large-scale conventional wars. Conditions are being created for establishing a mutually beneficial partnership between the Russian Federation and other states.

At the same time, the emergence of a multipolar world order is accompanied by the desire of the United States to retain the role of a world leader and the struggle between states claiming regional leadership for the redistribution of spheres of influence. This poses a potential threat to the intensification of competition in almost all areas of interstate relations, which, in the event of an unfavorable development of events, can lead to destabilization of the situation.

There is a clear tendency to shift the main emphasis in interstate contradictions to the sphere of geopolitical and economic interests. Negative trends in the development of the military-political situation are compounded by the desire of multinational companies to redistribute spheres of influence. Resource, demographic, and territorial problems persist. The threats associated with unconventional, qualitatively new forms of information, technological and economic expansion, the proliferation of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction, their means of delivery, and the growth of international terrorism, illicit arms and drug trafficking are increasing.

Extremist, political, separatist, nationalist, religious forces and movements that use military force, terrorist means and methods to achieve their political goals are becoming more active.

The most serious destabilizing factor is the desire of a number of States to take advantage of the temporary weakening of Russia's economic and military potential and international positions, and to limit its role in shaping the international security system and in global integration processes.

A permanent factor in the destabilization of the military-political situation is the bloc policy. The preservation and strengthening of military-political blocs hinders the formation of an international security system, reproduces the threat of militarization of international relations.

Thus, the analysis of trends in the development of the military-political and military-strategic situation in the world indicates the possibility of aggravation of the situation in various regions, which may result in the emergence of real threats to Russia's interests and security.

In general terms, threats to the security of the Russian Federation are understood as a set of actions of foreign states (their unions), international terrorist organizations, and criminal structures (groups):

creating a danger of violations of sovereignty, territorial integrity, changes in the constitutional order;

obstacles to the realization of national interests;

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contributing to the erosion of national values and the destruction of the basic foundations of the way of life;

undermining the level of the country's defense capability.

The range of major threats to our state is officially defined in the new "Concept of National Security of the Russian Federation" and in relation to the military sphere is detailed in the Military Doctrine. The military authorities consider military threats to the country's security as "a specific part of the general spector of threats to the national security of the Russian Federation related to the direct or indirect use of military force."

Thus, the geopolitical situation that has radically changed in a relatively short time, despite all its historical significance, has not led to the triumph of non-violent principles in international relations. The pre - existing military threat of a large-scale (possibly nuclear) military conflict between the West and the East only transformed into threats of local and regional proportions, but did not disappear completely. At the same time, under certain conditions, these threats can be transformed into conflicts, in which both military and non-military forces and means can be used to resolve them.

With the end of the cold war, there was a disintegration of several geopolitical shells that had previously surrounded the Russian Federation and performed, among other things, a protective function. Such a large-scale deformation of the geopolitical space has marked new groups of military threats for Russia (see diagram), the priority of which (the degree of danger) is higher in relation to the former, already existing ones. At the same time, it is clear that the basis of such a system, or rather its core, will be the struggle for resources, a prosperous economic and living space.

The first group of military threats, the most dangerous for the Russian Federation, should include international terrorism.

Armed sabotage and terrorist acts in the world have taken on an alarming scale. In the regions adjacent to Russia, organized criminal groups equipped with modern weapons are being created with the participation of citizens representing a number of States. By the beginning of the 90s of the XX century, there were about 500 terrorist organizations and groups of various extremist orientation operating in the world. In just ten years, they committed about 7 thousand acts of international terrorism, which affected more than 11 thousand people, and the States on whose territory these acts were carried out suffered great material and moral damage.

For Russia, these are relatively new threats, which it is not yet fully prepared to adequately counter. The experience of conducting a large-scale counter-terrorist operation in Dagestan and Chechnya has shown that this group of military threats poses a real threat to security and will be of a long-term nature.

The second group of military threats to the security of the Russian Federation is caused by the peacekeeping activities of States and military blocs, the nature of which does not fit into the existing international legal framework.

The idea of preventing the outbreak of military conflicts and resolving them through collective efforts at the regional level under the auspices of the UN is highly appreciated and correctly perceived by most States of the world. However, the United States and its closest NATO allies are trying to use multinational peacekeeping forces to establish their control in areas of vital interests.

Here, the potential threat to the Russian Federation is related to the fact that" peacekeeping forces " can be deployed on the territory of neighboring and friendly states without the UN Security Council's approval, which will lead to Russia's involvement in the conflict as part of its fulfillment of its allied and other obligations.

The third group of military threats to the security of the Russian Federation is concentrated in the immediate vicinity of Russia - in the post-Soviet space.

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has not yet become an effective institution of multilateral cooperation and partnership, an instrument of collective protection of the common interests of the participating countries. Today, Russia's CIS partners are going through a crisis period of internal development. They face the most complex problems of state, socio-economic development, and the search for an effective program for further development.

Thus, in the North Caucasus, Transcaucasia and Central Asia, hotbeds of ethnopolitical tension are concentrated, and a zone of potential armed conflicts remains.

The fourth group of military threats can accumulate inside the Russian Federation - in the regions of the Federation. The destruction of spirituality, the weakening of regional economic ties and sharp social differentiation give rise to separatism and are a favorable environment for the creation of illegal armed groups, which poses a threat to the federal unity and security of Russia. Cosmopolitanism is taking on a growing scale, and nationalism is responding to it.

The fifth group of military threats will come from foreign states and military-political blocs that have nuclear "deterrence-deterrence" capabilities and general-purpose forces that have " strategic mobility "and are capable of conducting" high-tech " military operations. Their deployed and constantly combat-ready groups of troops (forces) will continue to be a potential military threat to the security of the Russian Federation in the new millennium.

"High technology" and, consequently, the danger of this group of military threats are determined by the military-technological separation of the United States and its main allies from Russia.

The US plans to create a national missile defense system and a theater-based missile defense system with the participation of the most developed countries may lead to an increase in the nuclear missile potential in the regions neighboring Russia, a decrease in the role of nuclear deterrence, a transformation of the ABM Treaty (1972), and ultimately to a dramatic breakdown of strategic stability with hardly predictable consequences.

In the foreseeable future, the North Atlantic Alliance will remain the carrier of a military threat to the Russian Federation. This is due to the direction of the military-political course of the bloc and the presence at its disposal of armed forces capable of conducting military operations of various scales with decisive goals. The capabilities of the new alliance (19 member countries) to exert military and military pressure on the Russian Federation and its allies have significantly increased.

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SYSTEM OF MILITARY THREATS AND THEIR CLASSIFICATION

The development and use of the infrastructure of new members will make it possible to quickly increase the grouping of troops (forces) near the Russian borders in a crisis situation.

The sixth group of military threats comes from developing countries with massive armies. According to foreign experts, their armed forces are well-equipped, combat-ready and capable of solving strategic tasks. These states are determined to achieve their goals, and their military capabilities represent a significant force that Russia must reckon with.

The seventh group of military threats is determined by the policies and practical actions of those "threshold" and "near-threshold" States that, in an effort to master nuclear missile technologies, ignore the fundamental international legal acts in the field of non-proliferation of missile and nuclear technologies. The level of these military threats may significantly increase if such states create ballistic missiles with a range that allows them to strike at the territory of the Russian Federation.

In the framework of almost anew

In the current system of military threats to the Russian Federation, it is necessary to pay attention to changes in the content of previous threats and their distribution in three areas of armed struggle.

Military threats in the continental space. These threats will be determined by new strategic objectives, the use of ground forces and their combat capabilities. At the beginning of the new millennium, their numbers in the foreign part of Eurasia will remain high.

Military threats in the world's oceans. Military threats from sea directions are largely due to the peculiarities of the country's geostrategic position. Russia has access to three oceans - the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific, its territory is washed by 12 seas. The length of the Russian maritime border is almost three times that of the land border. Therefore, if the Russian Federation is drawn into a conflict on a local, and even more so on a regional scale, it may be necessary to repel massive missile and air strikes from the sea.

Military threats in air and near-Earth space.

Military threats in these areas are determined by the further improvement of the air forces and their use by foreign States, the growth of air and space attack capabilities, plans to deploy missile defense elements in near-Earth space and the ability to block the Russian Federation's access to space with anti-satellite weapons, and the disruption of the Russian missile attack warning system. In addition, geopolitical rivalries will shift from land and sea to air and space at the beginning of the third millennium.

New features of the development of information, spiritual, legal, environmental and other spheres will indirectly contribute to the growth of military threats, their scale and probability of implementation.

In the near future, the information sphere is becoming a breeding ground for the growth of new military threats. Information blackmail, disinformation, monopolization

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On the one hand, the destruction of the state's information resource through the introduction of computer viruses can act as a powerful catalyst for them.

Achieving information superiority gives the opponent the opportunity to take the lead in making military-political decisions, allows you to disrupt operational and strategic plans, disable or paralyze the military control system.

The emphasis is also placed on the strategy of indirect actions( SNA), which is understood as a set of information-psychological and information-technical measures aimed at destabilizing the socio-political situation in the Russian Federation. Public authorities are increasingly targeted: political, military and religious leaders, oligarchs, the elite of society, banks, industrial enterprises, higher educational institutions and scientific organizations, and mass media, mostly of an independent nature.

The probability of realization of military threats, both external and internal, is largely determined by the state of the spiritual sphere. The factors of growing military threats to Russia in this aspect are the blunting of the sense of patriotism, the loss of prestige of military service and other spiritual values. There is a destruction of the traditions and identity of Russian culture. The number of extremist religious sects is increasing.

The state of relations in the environmental sphere can also have an impact on the formation of military threats. The facts of environmental pollution have become a matter of concern for many States. Accidents, catastrophes and the consequences of ill-conceived economic activity are becoming more and more threatening. According to experts, the critical state of the environment in the third millennium may cause inter-state conflicts, including military ones.

Military threats to the security of the Russian Federation are increasing under the influence of unresolved problems in the legal sphere. The most dangerous ones are those that lead to the erosion of the single legal space of the federation. For example, the practice of adoption until recently by individual subjects of the Russian Federation of normative legal acts and decisions that contradict the Constitution of the Russian Federation and federal legislation.

Problems related to the situation and rights of the Russian-speaking population in the Baltic States, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, which lead to an increase in tension, will remain unresolved to the full extent. Increasing discrimination, violation of the rights, freedoms and legitimate interests of Russian citizens can, under certain conditions, draw our country into another conflict.

Of particular concern is the state of the military sphere, where many complex and pressing problems need to be solved. After the disintegration of the USSR, 24% of the territory was lost, almost 40% of the population, and the mobilization capabilities of Russia's industry and its Armed Forces were reduced. The overall military-strategic situation has worsened: the configuration of state borders has changed, especially in the West and South, the geographical position of military districts and their borders have undergone negative changes for state security.

Part of the production capacity, natural resources, a number of important elements of military infrastructure, communications, and a large number of material and technical facilities of the former Soviet Union remained outside the borders of the Russian Federation.

The system of command and control of troops (forces) and weapons, their technical equipment and comprehensive support began to need serious changes, improvements and updates. The Russian military-industrial complex was destroyed.

Of course, the growth of military threats is influenced by factors in other areas of the state's life. But even based on the above, it can be assumed that at the beginning of the third millennium, while Russia retains its nuclear deterrent potential, military threats will be more likely to manifest themselves not in the form of possible direct military aggression by foreign states (although this form of threat implementation cannot be completely excluded), but in the expansion of the scale of terrorist and sabotage activities on its territory. activities, creation of illegal armed formations, support of anti-Russian sentiments in the post-Soviet space and in the CIS countries through informational, ethno-religious, economic, political, diplomatic and other types of indirect actions. Nevertheless, for the foreseeable future, the Russian Federation must maintain its strategic deterrent to potential aggressors and its nuclear power status in order to prevent a nuclear attack or large-scale aggression using conventional armed forces and weapons.

At the same time, the Armed Forces will perform their tasks in accordance with the Constitution of the Russian Federation, federal laws of the Russian Federation in the field of defense and security, other state regulations, and Russia's international obligations, while strictly observing the norms of international law.

In the current situation, the tasks of the Armed Forces in the security system of the Russian Federation are not limited to the issues of national defense. The need to use military force requires a broader framework. Peacemaking, a powerful tool of the country's foreign policy, has become a priority activity of the Armed Forces. The use of Russian troops in peacekeeping operations is one of the ways to protect the national interests of the Russian Federation and ensure its security.

At the same time, it is important to emphasize that the fulfillment of these tasks can only be achieved by a high level of combat training, organization and discipline of each serviceman. Only as a result of the hard military work of military personnel and due care on the part of the state can Armed Forces be created that can ensure the security and protection of the country.

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