Yelena BONDAREVA
Analytical observer, "Voice of Russia"
Senior researcher, Russian Academy of Sciences
Ph. D. (History)

In late April 2005, Vladimir Putin paid a visit to the Middle East, which may be described without exaggeration as historical. He visited Egypt, Israel and the Palestinian Authority - according to international observers, this is a classical route, as US politicians also visit Middle Eastern states in this very order. The historical significance of the trip does not come down to the fact that this is the first time that a serving leader of this country has made such a "triple tour", or that Russia is assuming a more active role of Middle East peace "negotiator" as a member of the International Quartet - it also lies in the substance of each of the three portions of the tour.

The day before

It should be said that the atmosphere on the eve of Vladimir Putin's

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state visit to Israel had become seriously aggravated. What is more, it was hard to escape the impression that it was being purposely aggravated. The negotiations over military supplies to Syria, which led to an emotional outburst in Israeli press, had just "happened" to reach an active stage. As though by accident, several days before the president left the Russian capital, consultations on nuclear cooperation had been held in Moscow with a high Iranian official - which once again evoked a squall of indignation in Israel. These were also the days when Leonid Nevzlin suddenly broke his long silence and started hurling thunderbolts at the President of Russia who had impinged upon Khodorkovsky's empire. With so much noise made, one got an impression this was not just a background but actually a noise screen designed to cover up the really serious and strictly confidential negotiations of the heads of the two states.

Israeli press, both Russian-language periodicals and leading Hebrew and English dailies - Maariv, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, etc. - all brought up the same point, "Why is Putin coming here?". Just as though the trip had not been preceded by numerous visits of Israeli leaders to Moscow and a meeting with Israeli President Moshe Katsav, as though Putin had not received, during the official ceremony of mourning in Auschwitz, an explicit invitation to visit Israel in the near future. Journalists were doing their utmost to convince Israeli public that, even though it was really a historical visit, the first of its kind, yet it was lacking any substance. They went so far as to seriously discuss Putin's possible desire to "celebrate Orthodox Easter in the Holy Land", as well as a variety of suppositions based on front-page news that got chewed over, intermingled and heaped on top of one another, resulting in an absolutely indigestible mixture.

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Version 1: "Herzliyah yardbirds"

In accordance with this version, Putin and Sharon were going to discuss Russia's refusal to sell missiles to Syria in exchange for Israel's extradition of Leonid Nevzlin to Russia.

Drawing a link between the two scandalous subjects, journalists managed to get a distinct explanation out of Putin that the missiles being sold to Syria are of defensive nature and that Russia is going to supervise over their usage - besides, this is a forced measure on Syria's part, as Syrian President Bashar Asad does not feel secure even in his own palace. Ariel Sharon, when accosted with the above suppositions, made a statement that the public had been yearning for - namely, that "there is no extraditing anyone from Israel", - doing this, Sharon was easily able to earn the missing points for his declining political rating. However, the loudest statement came from Leonid Nevzlin. Upon my honor, if the visit had not been planned beforehand, it simply should have been organized for a show of this sort.

In the midst of the bank crisis in Israel that involved accusations of criminal money laundering against "Russian oligarchs", including Vladimir Gusinsky, Leonid Nevzlin, Michail Brudno, and Vladimir Dubov, investigations of offences committed by government officials, customers of Bank Hapoalim, including some from the Foreign Ministry, the arrest of the Israeli consul in the Netherlands - it was in the midst of all these developments that Leonid Nevzlin, a Russian business tycoon, gave his scandalous interviews from "Herzliyah confinement".

It should be noted here that, for long years, "Israel had simply refused to fight money laundering. Everything was done to let Jews from all over the world to make unimpeded transfers of capitals

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here... Using this, various banks have managed over many years to transfer huge amounts here, and make a lot of money on this" (E.Ganor, "Money has a smell!", March 10, 2005). The new law passed in 2002 radically changed the situation, being directed against capitals "known to have a criminal origin" - consequently, Israeli government agencies conducting investigations of Bank Hapoalim customers must have facts confirming this very origin of "Russian capitals".

In this awkward situation, Leonid Nevzlin, by force of habit, threw over point to politics, plunging into a political battle with the Russian president: "I tried not to annoy Putin, yet we got what they had in store for us, anyway (meaning the charges against YUKOS. - Ye.B. ), so now let him, Putin, get it in full, too. And he will!... FREEDOM FOR ALL IN RUSSIA MAY ONLY BE POSSIBLE AFTER A RADICAL CHANGE OF THE REGIME" ("Globus", April 17, 2005). In the same interview, Nevzlin called for global restrictions on rebroadcasting of central Russian TV channels, and a preferential treatment in international broadcasting for "independent" media - in the first place, REN-TV and RTVi. Coming at the time of the president's visit, Nevzlin's declarations got global publicity, which was what he really required. But why should anyone cancel the sale of missiles to Syria in exchange for extradition of fugitive oligarchs? If Israeli legislation is strictly enforced, local justice is going to get them in Israel quite as well.

As for the missiles, it is mostly journalists who were seriously concerned about them. Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Institute for Israel and Middle East, was absolutely right in his interview to the Ekho Moskvy radio station, "Syrian missiles will not matter much here, because, believe me, the Israelis are not any

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less concerned about US sales of advanced weapons to Saudi Arabia or Egypt than about our point interaction with Syria. Yet this does not at all result in collapse of relations between the US and Israel..." Satanovsky is not the one to let out state secrets over the radio, yet he implied that, unlike many others, he is aware "why Putin and Sharon are meeting in Israel. And, most likely, the result will be that relations between Russia and Israel will follow the route of US-Israeli relationships, being based on normal, pragmatic realism ".

Yet what is evident for the president of the Institute for Israel and Middle East is not that obvious for many other authors, who seek for different motives for this high-ranking visit.

Version 2: "There is no horror like Iran, and Bushehr is the worst..."

In Israel, the fear of being attacked by Iran, especially if Iran has nuclear weapons, has grown to an obsession. Many people in Israel are unable to either understand or forgive the cooperation of Russian nuclear experts with the "ayatollah regime" - even though it takes the format of peaceful nuclear energy use. This gives rise to speculations like A.Rybalko's article, "What is Putin seeking in Israel?" (Novosti Nedeli, April 14, 2005). The author wrote, "Now it becomes clear why Iran needs a nuclear bomb. No - the Iranians are not going to use it - yet the thought that the enemy has nuclear weapons is going to deter Israel from using its own nuclear potential (Rather reasonable thinking, it should be noted - Ye.B.). And in a situation when Israel is unable to use its nuclear bomb the forces will be definitely unequal... In this situation, the Israeli government will hardly dare to do anything other than turn to the

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UN with a plaintive plea, "Bring us away from here". The author goes on with his fantasies on the subject of where Israelis can actually go, coming to a conclusion that the bulk of Israelis will "have to be settled in the US, Australia and, partially, in Europe. CIS immigrants number about a million in Israel, and the ones who will stay alive will have to be evacuated somewhere". Here comes the explanation why Putin is in Israel - he is going to make a declaration of the following sort, "In view of the growing anti-Semitism in Moscow and St.Petersburg, we will have to resettle all immigrants from Israel away to the Jewish autonomous region". Doing this, the Russian president will rescue Jews, simultaneously filling in the vacuum on the border with China - as for the USA, it, according to Rybalko, will "sponsor Jewish resettlement to the Jewish autonomous region". For the US itself, this exodus will be welcome, as it will "give the US a free hand in the Middle and Near East, rid it of the ally that has become a burden, and save it from complaints that "America helps Jews". The entire oil may be brought under control with a single blow, and no one will say a word against it - after Iran rubs out the entire state (Israel), the US will be able to save $7 billion a year from cancellation of the Camp David Accords alone. So Putin comes to Israel with a clear and simple goal - to see for himself who and on what terms can be saved here. Frankly speaking, we should be thankful to him".

For all the author's jesting manner, he sounds logical, but the question is whether Iran really needs this so much. Is Iran so very intent on destroying Israel, as ones are trying to convince Israeli public?

President Putin has repeatedly offered explanations - he did it during the visit to Israel, too - regarding Russia's limited

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cooperation with Iran and the IAEA's comprehensive control over the Iranian nuclear energy sector. In the course of the visit, there has been more discussion of this issue in newspapers than at the negotiating table.

Version 3: Putin as universal intermediary

According to a third version, "Putin and Sharon have common goals (www.evrey.com)", the main "substance" of Putin's visit to Israel has remained and will long remain concealed behind the scenes of official events and declarations. The true goal may be designated as intense secret negotiations between Putin and Sharon over the Israeli leader's proposition that Putin, who wields influence over Syria and other Arab countries, undertake a major intermediary mission aiming to make Syria renounce its active support of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the armed opposition in Iraq. Fulfilling in this case an "order" from the US and acting as intermediary between the US and Russia, Sharon at the same time would like (with Putin's help) to get another major "concession" from the Syrian leader - a tacit support for Sharon's unilateral disengagement plans. In exchange for this, according to this version, Sharon is willing to withdraw from the Golan Heights to the 1967 borders.

In a situation like this, it may be easy for President Putin to talk Bashar Asad into renouncing his Father's plans to return to the 1948 borders and make everyone happy - with Syria getting back the Golan Heights, Sharon getting a respite for implementation of his unilateral disengagement plan, Russia having played its historical role, and the US allegedly happy to involve Russia in settling the problems it created in the Middle and Near East.

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According to this version, "the US, being the main architect of Putin's visit to Israel, was not formerly interested in contacts of this scale between Israel and Russia - however, facing serious problems in Iraq and Iran, it has been forced to seek for Russia's mediation through Israel".

The President of Russia thus appears to be a universal mediator - between both Israel and Arabs, and Arabs and the US. Marvelous! No need to do anything except drawing dividends! As for all the noise, it is only meant for simple-minded public, while serious politicians will always be able to come to terms. The only thing is that reality does not fit this idyllic picture too well - as yet, we are witnessing a directly opposite process, with White House emissaries acting as intermediaries and advisors at all headquarters across the CIS, from Chisinau to Bishkek, without heeding too much the inconsistent protests of Moscow, which has its heels trodden on right in its own "entrance hall".

What are the real results of Putin's visit to Israel?

Russia is returning to a more active role in the Middle East peace process. An indication of this is Russia's proposal to convene an international peace conference in Moscow, which the Russian leader put forward in Cairo, Jerusalem and Ramallah. The Arabs supported this initiative. On the whole, the Egyptian portion of the tour was very intense and constructive. It was agreed that Gazprom would invest over half a billion dollars in construction of a gas pipeline here. Officials of the Federal space agency conducted successful negotiations on establishing a joint space-based land remote sensing system. Rosoboronexport was also satisfied with its negotiations on supplies of air defense systems. Positive results

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were achieved in the field of cultural and information cooperation - the sides discussed a project for opening a Russian university in Cairo, reached an agreement on intensive development of tourism.

No less interesting were Russia's proposals to Palestinian leaders. The Russian side, aware of PA problems with skilled personnel - in the first place, in the security field, offered aid in training Palestinian police. Russia is also prepared to supply to the Palestinian Authority transport vehicles and light weapons, if Israel gives its consent. There was also discussion of intensifying contacts in the field of higher education and opening schools in Bethlehem and Jericho, in accordance with the old Russian tradition.

Russia and Israel also have ample opportunities for cooperation - in the field of antiterrorist activities, finance, defense production, energy supplies. If you leave aside politicking and speculations of those who are interested in freezing contacts between Russia and Israel and are even prepared to provoke an inter-state conflict, it will appear that 70% of oil supplied to Israel is of Russian origin, that Israel is vitally interested in having the Israeli segment of the gas pipeline project "Blue Flow" commissioned.

The bilateral trade turnover between Russia and Israel stands at about a million dollars a year. Russia imports Israeli telecommuni-cations equipment, agricultural produce. Israeli economists are convinced their country "possesses an enormous potential for investments in Russia" (Jerusalem Post, April 28, 2005).

Ariel Sharon expressed a general impression of the visit, saying, "Vladimir Putin is a patriot and nationalist, a person aware of the outstanding culture of Russia, moved by a sense of national honor and the desire to restore the country's status of enormous empire wielding a strong influence". It would be hard for us to wish a more

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favorable view of our president. Observers also noted the pragmatic character of the Russian president - he was polite and nice to deal with throughout his historical visit to Jerusalem, but "when all formalities were over, he picked up his chips and went off to continue the game with Israel's Arab neighbors".

Yevgeny Satanovsky must be right saying that relations should be built on a realistic and pragmatic basis, while all the rest is nothing more than media versions.

RA

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