Doctor of Economics, Primakov Institute of International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences

N. K. SEMENOVA

Center for Energy and Transport Research IV RAS

Keywords: Russian Federation, China, Silk Road Economic Belt, capital export

Belonging to the East, successfully updated by the Eurasian arrangement, seems to be both a resource, an obligation, and a certain threat to Russia. Simply put, it is desirable to build relations with Asian countries that are free from surprises and illusions, without forgetting the European partners, who are now also rushing to join the projects of the East and, in particular, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiated by China.¹ It is important for Russia to avoid both the euphoria of integration, which was the original cause of the current crisis in relations with the West, and procrastination, which is fraught with loss of interest on the part of Eastern friends.

The year 2015 was canceled by the exceptional foreign policy activity of the PRC. Suffice it to say that the country's leader spent almost a month and a half abroad, and many of his visits were deservedly characterized as historical. Their content suggests that Beijing has a strategic program that includes both time-tested components and innovative approaches associated with a decisive reassessment by the new leadership of the country of China's place and role in world politics and the economy.

One of the supporting structures of the project developed before us is the concept of "Joint construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the Maritime Silk Road (MSP) of the XXI Century"². We emphasize that the Chinese world project is not limited to the "belt and road" alone (which covers the entire "world island" - Asia, Europe and Africa) - Beijing is also very energetic in the Western Hemisphere. However, it was the Belt and Road initiative that took the central place in China's information offensive last year and acquired a symbolic, i.e. extremely important role.

VECTORS AND LOGIC OF THE OFFENSIVE

The historical background of the Chinese project is well known. From adapting to the global economy, a kind of "digesting globalization", which took about twenty years and ended with the WTO accession in 2001, Beijing in the new century has moved to the energetic development of the world economy, putting forward the course of "going out into the world" (to a certain extent, the course of "going out into the world" - "zou chuqu"). even partially overcomes the traditional Chinese doctrine of "self-reliance" - "zi li geng sheng"). This course had three main directions.

First, interaction with old industrial centers, which was largely focused on borrowing advanced technologies.

Secondly, especially close cooperation with nearby new industrial countries and territories (the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, etc.), which was based on cooperation in exporting to the markets of third countries (primarily developed ones), and a kind of extension of the life span of export orientation of more developed neighbors due to the Chinese "platform".

Third, increasing the volume of trade and contract cooperation with developing countries, which is largely focused on providing resources for China's accelerated industrial and infrastructure development.

In all three areas, the PRC naturally sought to develop foreign markets, taking advantage of cheap and diligent labor.

In other words, Beijing pursued a differentiated policy, rather than following a passive "integration into the world economy", which resulted in the loss of economic and political independence for many states, including those in transition

countries. As a result, during the first decade and a half of "entering the world", the PRC not only became a major player in the existing global institutions with mainly Western control, but also actually organized its own subsystem in the international division of labor.

In the new century, China has become the world's leading exporter, largest industrial power and financial center. But that's not all. China became one of the leaders of the scientific, technological and environmental revolution, firmly tied to itself the near and many distant countries, founded a number of new international formats, including the SCO and BRICS.

The PRC's economic offensive relies not only on a well-coordinated state-corporate mechanism, but also, to a growing extent, on private capital that has matured to export standards, as well as on a large, newly paternalized diaspora. ³

For this reason, China's expansion is quite natural - in private conversations, Chinese colleagues are not averse to joking about the "imperialist stage" of their socialist capitalism. This analogy also seems appropriate to many people because the traditional motive-the struggle for sales markets-was combined in the first decade of the century with the active acquisition of foreign sources of fuel and raw materials by the PRC. In addition, Chinese "colonialism" has also triggered a new round of competition for developing countries in Africa and Latin America that were forgotten by globalization at the end of the 20th century.⁴

Note the free-trading attitude of today's China, which seems to have forgotten about decades of "self-reliance". "By actively participating in global economic governance, China promotes liberalization and opposes all kinds of protectionism," Hu Jintao said in his report to the 18th CPC National Congress (2012)^.5

The fact that China's rise and expansion coincided with the financial crisis in the West and US failures in the Middle East added to the "imperialist" analogy of the struggle for markets and influence. All this, taken together, caused a sharply negative reaction from Washington at the turn of the noughties and tenths, strengthening elements of containment of the PRC in its strategy. The US policy on the situation in Xinjiang and Tibet added fuel to the fire. As a result, the awakened polycentrism of the modern world has also acquired the features of a new bipolarity6.

The Chinese response is complex. Beijing has strengthened the naval component of military construction, began to look for bases for the fleet abroad. And the new leadership of the country recently publicly stated "the continuous expansion of the sphere of state interests... including in relation to foreign energy resources, strategic communication routes, as well as institutions, personnel and assets abroad." "Further expansion of strategic horizons", "special interest zones abroad", "active strategic role in military rivalry" - all these assertive expressions are from the open documents of our days ⁷.

Among the answers in the bipolar logic can be attributed to the silk belt initiative (recall that at the turn of the century, the United States promoted its interests in the Caspian region under the slogan "new silk road"). For the first time, as is known, the Chinese concept was briefly voiced by Xi Jinping at Nazarbayev University in September 2013. The word "belt" itself, we note, evokes memories of the term rimland from the geopolitical construction of N. Spikeman**, the word hinterland⁸.

It should also be noted that the geopolitical classics are now very popular among Chinese international experts. But they modestly avoid direct parallels, as well as comparisons of the Silk Road project with the Marshall Plan announced in 1947 at Harvard University.

Let's note one more detail: in the text of the Belt and Road concept there is an expression-Eurasian Land Bridge⁹. It has long been actively used by a group of Western scientists headed by Lyndon LaRouche. They are distinguished by a sharply critical attitude towards the Western mainstream, the financial architecture that they have developed, as well as considerable enthusiasm for global infrastructure projects, including, for example, a transport tunnel under the Bering Strait. The Group collaborates with the Chunyang Institute of the People's University of China, which in 2015 published a Chinese translation of the collective report "The New Silk Road Becomes the World Land-Bridge"¹⁰ (see map 1). We emphasize that the " new silk road "and" silk belt "are not the same thing: the" belt " does not yet involve the United States.

China's "silk road" offensive now looks exceptionally advantageous in the eyes of the world's broadest audience. Beijing offers to build infrastructure, trade and improve the environment. Many people are impressed by the obvious priority of the real economy. China devotes considerable financial resources to development corridors, multimodal hubs, clean energy sources, and high-speed highways, while the old powers tighten their belts, wince at stock market reports, and engage in strength training. Nacha-

* Free trade in politics and economic practice, which proclaims free trade and non-interference of the state (editor's note).

** Nikolos Spikeman (1893-1943) was a Dutch - born American scientist who argued that the axis of geopolitics is Rimland-the Eurasian belt of coastal territories in Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region. His formula for world domination reads as follows:" Whoever dominates Rimland dominates Eurasia; whoever dominates Eurasia holds the fate of the world in his hands " (editor's note).

Map 1. Scheme of the global transport network "New Silk Road". Corridors (A., B.,...) and infrastructure projects (1,2,...) (planned, under construction, and completed).

Notes:

- Corridors: A-The Peru-Brazil Transcontinental Railway; B-The Darien Gap Transamerican Railway; C - Alaska - Canada-Lovers48 Highway; D-The Eurasia - America Transcontinental Polyhighway through the Bering Strait (i.e., it combines rail and road lines,power lines, etc.). oil and gas pipelines, cable telecommunications); D - Trans-Siberian Corridor; E - Silk Road Economic Belt; G - North-South International Transport Corridor; H - Trans-African Highway; I - Australian Circumferential Highway; K - Northern Sea Route.

- Infrastructure projects: 1. The Great Transoceanic Canal in Nicaragua; 2. The Transport, Energy and Telecommunications Corridor under the Bering Strait; 3. The Mainland - Sakhalin Island Transport Link; 4. The Sakhalin - Hokkaido Tunnel; 5. The Seikan Tunnel; 6. The Korea - Japan underwater Tunnel; 7. The Dalian Bohai Bay Tunnel - Yantai; 8. Malacca Strait Bridge; 9. Sunda Strait Bridge Sumatra - Java; 10. Thai Canal; 11. Three-tiered tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait; 12. New Suez Canal; 13. Italy (Sicily)-Tunisia (Cape Bon) underground and underwater railway tunnel; 14. Gibraltar tunnel; 15. Eurotunnel under the English Channel; 16. Fehm-belt road and rail tunnel Denmark-Germany.

Source: http://worldlandbridge.com

lo offensive successfully took place, moreover, it turned out to be informative and effective. The appearance of geopolitical and military justifications in the Chinese expansion is not yet very striking, which, however, does not make them any less significant.

Bipolar interaction between the United States and China is not just a competition in economic, financial and geopolitical weight, which, however, is of considerable importance. In fact, we are talking about a deep divergence in the views of the two countries on the process of economic development itself and the main contours of international cooperation accompanying this process. The United States, while promoting the Pacific and Atlantic partnership, relies on separating developed and a number of developing countries that are politically dependent on them into a certain space where the already established rules of the game work and even strengthen - convenient, first of all, to transnational private capital.

Beijing, generally taking into account the existing rules, fixes, first, their insufficiency for maintaining economic growth, which is vital for most countries of the world. Secondly, the PRC emphasizes that the "club" principle is openly discriminatory and often involves forced deductions from economic independence. That is why China has long been open to concrete measures and proposals that expand the capabilities of national States in terms of non-proliferation.-

Map 2. The main routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the Maritime Silk Road of the XXI century.

Источник: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/media_wysiwyg/OBORMap_0.j pg

dependent selection of development strategies and tools to support them.

In other words, it is appropriate to call Washington's approach exclusive and backward - looking, and Beijing's approach inclusive and forward - looking, and therefore more appropriate to the new realities on the planet. In fact, after the financial crisis in the West, we are witnessing the decline of center-periphery globalization and, at the same time, the emergence of a polycentric world, in which productive cooperation between the countries of the former periphery and semi - periphery is growing very fast, while promoting more equal dialogues between relatively weak states and old centers of power.

NEW PRIORITIES

The Belt and Road concept (developed jointly by the State Committee for Development and Reform, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China) contains clear economic and geographical contours and, among other things, fairly detailed instructions on the tasks of certain regions of China in implementing the project. For example, the provinces of the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River are encouraged to cooperate with their partners in the Volga region.

In general, the interior of the country is focused on cooperation with the central, southern and western parts of Asia, the role of "window and vanguard" in the western land direction ("belt"). It is assigned to the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Yunnan Province will play a similar role in land and river communications with the ASEAN and South Asian countries. Coastal provinces (with an indication of specific cities), in turn, form the base of the sea "route".

A special place in the concept was occupied by Russia - including as an exit to the Baltic and the Sea of Japan. A high-speed transport corridor "Beijing-Moscow"is planned. Other corridors include the links "China-Mongolia-Russia", "China-Central Asia - West Asia", "China - Indochina Peninsula", "China - Pakistan"and" Bangladesh - China - India-Myanmar " ¹¹ (see map 2).

This general disposition

records projects that are in various stages of development and implementation, including completed ones*. It also has a succinct formula "dong wen bei qiang nanxia xi jin": "to stabilize in the East - to strengthen in the North -to descend in the South - to advance in the West". But the ongoing expansion is also underpinned by China's rapidly changing economic and political parameters and updated goals.

At this historical stage, the PRC is completing accelerated industrialization and has significant excess capacity in heavy industry, including metallurgy, construction materials production,transport and energy engineering. The service sector is becoming the engine of economic growth, and the energy intensity** and material intensity of GDP continue to decline. Under the weight of environmental problems, a public demand for a strong policy in this area has been formed and is being implemented, which is already enshrined in the country's international obligations.

The share of industry in GDP, which exceeded 49% in 2007, has been declining since then: in 2011. it was 46.8%, compared to 40.6% in 2015. Services are now the main component of GDP (51.4%), up from 39% seven years ago ¹². Approximately the same structure of GDP in modern Malaysia, which is about twice as large as China in terms of per capita income.¹³ The industrialization of China, which at the beginning of this century was accompanied by an unprecedented infrastructure development in the world's history, is changing - and at the same time becoming an additional prerequisite for the "silk road" offensive.

It is noteworthy that at the end of 2014, China offered Kazakhstan a program to export the production of steel, cement, glass, electricity and processing of a number of raw materials to its territory.¹⁴

And this is not the only prerequisite for expanding cooperation with the Belt and Road countries. Following wage growth and the consumer and environmental revolution, the price competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in a number of labor-intensive light industry sectors continues to decline. There is a shortage of rural labor, and urbanization is leading to a shortage of agricultural land, which has become the subject of increased interest of Chinese investors around ^the world15.

At the same time, high savings rates and huge foreign exchange reserves remain, despite the significantly increased export and outflow of capital. It can be said that the PRC has reached the capital-surplus stage of economic development, the advanced level of industrial technologies, i.e., the phase at which industrial countries in the 1960s launched assistance programs for developing countries.

It is clear that the widely recognized achievements of the PRC in information and communication technologies add to the expansion potential. It should also be noted that in the Western European direction, the current Chinese expansion includes active investment in high-tech enterprises, joint R & D, etc.Cases of acquisition and creation of manufacturing enterprises abroad are multiplying. So, in Malaysia, in the summer of 2015, a plant for the production of passenger trains ¹⁶ started working. A project on auto-assembly and production of polypropylene is being implemented in Kazakhstan ¹⁷. In Kyrgyzstan, China is building a machine-tractor plant and a plant for the production of nitrogen fertilizers, a cotton processing plant and textile industry enterprises. An oil refinery has been built to meet a third of the republic's needs and generate a seventh of its tax revenues.¹⁸

All these changes are reflected in the nature of China's "entry into the world", expanding potential areas of cooperation with the countries of the "belt and road". Their energy (fuel and raw materials) component, which has become the basis of China's cooperation with the countries of Eurasia over the past decade and a half (by which we mean Russia and Central Asia here), can be decisively supplemented with new elements and eventually evolve into a full-blooded and versatile mechanism of cooperation.

Partly reflecting these circumstances, the Belt and Road concept sets out five priorities for cooperation:

- first, it is the coordination of national economic strategies;

- second, improving the connectivity of national infrastructure systems;

- third, removing barriers to trade and investment;

- fourth, financial cooperation;

- fifth, humanitarian relations ¹⁹.

The detailed description of these priorities proposed in the document indicates a thorough study of the Belt and Road project, including the balance of modern capabilities of the PRC and the needs of partner countries. The document is designed in an optimistic and energetic spirit and projects the vocabulary of modern international cooperation on the realities of incomplete modernization and undeveloped infrastructure of most states in a vast geographical area. Considerable emphasis is placed on cooperation in new and high-tech industries, industrial integration, and the business climate.

It is noteworthy that:-

* As of mid-2015, rail freight traffic to Europe via Russia was carried out in Harbin, Shenyang, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu and Changsha. author's note).

* * In 2014, for the first time in many years, China's production of coal, fertilizers, refrigerators, tractors, and textiles declined. Cargo transportation, as well as production of coal, steel, pig iron, coke, cement, glass, automobiles, etc. decreased in 2015. The decrease in the energy intensity of GDP was 4.8% in 2014 and 5.7% in the three quarters of 2015. See: Sshtsky A. I., Semenova N. K. China's Silk Offensive-http://www.perspektivy.info/oykumena/azia/shelkovoje_nastuplenije_kitaja_2016 - 01 - 11.htm

The concept takes into account the interests of countries with established raw material specialization: cooperation is proposed, in particular, in the field of deep processing of fuel and raw materials near their extraction sites. The recommendations for Chinese companies operating abroad are formulated in an attractive way for partner countries: in terms of increasing local employment, social and environmental responsibility, etc.

Special attention of the world community was drawn to Chinese initiatives in the field of financing the Belt and Road projects, Beijing's readiness to make large investments in new international banks and development funds. The concept includes such institutions as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the BRICS ²⁰ New Development Bank, and the Silk Road Fund (SFP). The concept also mentions the SCO financial institution under discussion*.

The tasks of these institutions, in addition to lending to investment projects, include the creation of a system for stabilizing national currencies. In cooperation with the Interbank Associations of the ASEAN and SCO countries, multilateral cooperation is planned in the form of syndicated loans and credits. Governments, companies and banks of partner countries are promised assistance in placing bonds on the Chinese financial market. At the same time, China's qualified financial institutions are encouraged to issue obligations in yuan and local currencies outside of China to raise funds for the Belt and Road initiative. We offer the closest possible cooperation in credit risk assessment, rating, and interaction between sovereign and private funds. It is not hidden that one of the tasks of the new institutions is the further internationalization of the Chinese currency.

The SREB has already started working in cooperation with Chinese banks. In April 2015, China and Pakistan signed a large-scale agreement worth $46 billion [²¹], which provides for investment in transport infrastructure and energy in Pakistan; construction of the China-Pakistan economic corridor - a network of roads, railways and pipelines between the allied countries. The length of the tracks reaches 3 thousand km, they will go from Pakistan's southern Gwadar to China's western Xinjiang province. These projects will give China access to the Indian Ocean. The SREB, the Industrial Trade Bank of China (ICBC), the Development Bank of China (CDB) and the Export-Import Bank of China will participate in financing the projects.

Other leading Chinese financial institutions, such as the Bank of China and the Construction Bank, have also been involved in the Belt and Road projects. In autumn 2015, Beijing applied for membership in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)²², including for project coordination. China's participation in the EBRD will open a new channel for China to finance infrastructure and other projects, including the Silk Road. This project provides for the construction of roads and railways, gas pipelines, ports and other facilities in Central, South, South-East Asia and ^the Middle East23.

Along the way, there are also amateur "silk" structures: in March 2015, a group of private investors announced the creation of a" Green Silk Road Fund " with a capital of 30 billion rubles. RMB-to finance ²⁴ environmental projects; two leading Chinese gold miners (Shandong Gold Group and Shaanxi Gold Group) - on the" Silk Road Gold Fund " with the intention of raising 100 billion yuan. RMB for investment in the industry in the "belt and road" countries and its financial (exchange) services ²⁵.

By establishing the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which includes, among others, leading European states, as well as Australia and New Zealand (to the obvious displeasure of Washington), Beijing has effectively designated itself as the leading financier of infrastructure development in the entire Euro-Asian space. This is quite natural, given the strength of the country's construction industry and its experience abroad. But such positioning also has a propaganda background: China's constructive financial initiatives contrast favorably with the ongoing debt and budget problems of developed, developing and transition countries, massive negative connotations about the so-called finansomics, lack of investment in the real sector, etc.

For developing and transition countries in the Belt and Road area, Chinese initiatives can be both an opportunity and a threat, depending on their ability to respond satisfactorily to Chinese proposals.

RUSSIAN INTERESTS AND RISKS

To begin with, it seems that you should decide on your own place and role in the Chinese global project. Its very appearance, in our opinion, is beneficial to Russia - the fact is that at the global level, we have formed more points of convergence of interests with China than it was until recently when they came into contact at the regional level , including in Central Asia.²⁶

* For more information, see: Klishin V. V., Pavlov V. V. New BRICS Development Bank: Problems of creation and prospects of activity // Asia and Africa today. 2015, N 9. (2015. Klishin V.V., Pavlov V.V. Novyi bank razvitiya BRIKS: problemy sozdaniya i perspektivy deyatelnosti // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 9) (in Russian)

** Chinese construction companies completed more than $100 billion in construction work in the first three quarters of 2015. (an increase of 9.2% y-o-y) and signed new contracts worth $137.6 billion. (growth of 26.5% year-on-year). See: http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news/content?id=20151015000102&cid=1102

Table 1

China's foreign trade with selected partners in 2015

Источник: http://www.haiguan.info/CustomData/MonthReport.aspx7guicH2888&currency=usd

It is no secret that the similarity of approaches of China and Russia to the main problems of the modern world is caused both by the relative weakening of the global hegemon due to wars and crises, and by increasing its pressure on Beijing and Moscow, which are forced to look for expensive counterweights. "If the US line is too tough on oil prices, Ukraine, and the promotion of NATO, if the rebalancing against China in the Pacific goes too far, then all this can lead Russia and China to a formal alliance, even considering that such an alliance is not their primary goal," he stated at the beginning of 2015. Feng Huiyun, a Chinese analyst based in Denmark ²⁷.

As you know, China and Russia are not supporters of the bloc policy. But in the current environment, they cannot ignore the strategic challenges and balance-of-power considerations they face. Hence the appearance of geopolitical justifications in the Chinese Belt and Road project noted above.

Note that such justifications implicitly increase the importance of Russia as the owner of the heartland*. The idea of a "belt" works in much the same direction - a broadband land junction between China and Europe, including Russia, looks reliable geographically and geopolitically.

Apparently, these and, of course, many other reasons served as the basis for the winning, from the point of view of Russia, joint statement with the PRC on the coupling of the belt project with the construction of ^{the EAEU in May 2015.28}

The high level of trust between Russia and China, which developed at the beginning of the century and has increased to date, does not guarantee against future risks. Understanding this very well, the Russian side has made efforts in the new century to build a solid economic foundation for relations, including by building it up extensively. One of the results of this approach was the reproduction in relations with the PRC of the fuel and raw materials link to the global economy.

The decline in fuel and raw material prices in the mid-2010s pushed back the quantitative indicators of trade: as a result, the Russian Federation (and the Central Asian countries) continues, in general, to remain a secondary economic partner for China: a total of 2.3% for exports and 2.9% for imports of the PRC (see Table 1).

The only component that is sensitive for the Chinese economy is the supply of hydrocarbons from Russia and Central Asia: however, for oil, their share in total consumption is less than 10%, for natural gas - less than 15%. The considerable potential for growth in natural gas supplies to China is obvious. It should be noted that China continues to increase oil imports (for the three quarters of 2015, the increase was 8.8%). China's natural gas consumption growth slowed in 2015 (an annual increase of 3-4%), but a higher growth rate is expected in 2016 after a significant decline in domestic prices in ^{November 2015.29}

It is clear that ties with Russia will remain valuable for Beijing due to the complex problems associated with energy security. However, without touching on these important issues, I would like to emphasize that the answer to the Chinese Belt and Road project is not limited to them alone. Moreover, there are risks of securing Russia as a passive party (sales market and fuel source) at a time when the quality and priorities of Chinese expansion are beginning to change, and the PRC is becoming a kind of exporter of modernization.

Therefore, the relatively low quantitative indicators of trade with China should not be dramatized. First of all, it's strange to be proud of the big ones

* Heartland (from the English Heartland - "middle earth") - the north-eastern part of Eurasia, bordered on the south and east by mountain systems, but its borders are defined differently by different researchers. It is the main concept of the geopolitical concept, voiced in 1904 by the British geographer and professor at the University of Oxford Halford J. Smith.Mackinder (editor's note).

Table 2

Expert assessments of the role of the Chinese project for Russia

Source: author's survey of participants of the International Conference: "Energy of Eurasia: new trends and prospects" at IMEMO RAS in November 2015.

Second, there is still a real opportunity to significantly improve the quality of such specialization in the Chinese direction, since for a long time it remained on the margins of the attention of our business and the establishment.

With Russia's Eastward turn, the situation has improved somewhat: the number of areas in which cooperation between our two countries looks modern, technologically rich and corresponds to the best opportunities of the parties is growing. But so far it's crumbs.

It should be noted that the experts who were asked to assess the priorities of the Silk belt concept from the point of view of Russian interests put the connection of infrastructure and the liberalization of trade and investment in high places. At the same time, some pessimism is noticeable: in terms of realistic interaction with the PRC, the score was the lowest (see Table 2). Unexpectedly, the value that Russia attaches to financial and humanitarian cooperation with China-an area where we are particularly clearly lagging behind other partners in the Middle Kingdom.

Meanwhile, there are relatively simple ways to diversify cooperation related to the achievements and ongoing restructuring of the Chinese economy. In particular, let's pay attention to the fact that China has become the world's leading "exporter" of tourists and is becoming a major importer of grain*. Theoretically, there is a possibility of organizing an "Asian breadbasket" in central Eurasia (Altai, Western Siberia, northern Kazakhstan) - as a component of the "belt" and an element of collective food security. Russia's revival of the Northern Sea Route can also be seen as part of a link to China's silk Road initiatives.

Let's pay attention to one more circumstance. The PRC continues to increase its share in global commodity exports: Chinese exports in the first three quarters of 2015 in value terms decreased by 1.8% - against a decrease in the global indicator for the same period by 10.7%**. Industrial cooperation with Chinese exporters in third-country markets looks very reliable and attractive.

Finally, we note that the high investment and financial tone of the People's Republic of China in the course of the beginning of the materialization of the "belt and road" concept can shift the global investment mood, which is characterized by obvious instability. Although the same drop in commodity prices can be interpreted as a classic sign of the proximity of a new rising wave in the world economy.

Will Chinese initiatives push forward the long-awaited investment boom, including in neighboring countries? It is possible that this will happen-including indirectly. India's response is interesting: a long-overdue railway reconstruction program is planned there (at a cost of $137 billion). for the next 5 years), foreign direct investment (FDI) is allowed in the sector, a large contract for the supply of 1 thousand diesel locomotives has been signed with General Electric³⁰. The country has finally started to

* In the three quarters of 2015, grain imports to China (excluding soybeans) exceeded 26 million tons , an 80% increase compared to 2014. See: General Administration of the Customs of the People's Republic of China - http://www.customs.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab49564/info774876.htm

** It is worth mentioning that China surpassed Japan in terms of export volume in 2004, the United States in 2007, and Germany in 2009. It is noteworthy that in 2014, China's exports exceeded the total exports of EU countries (28) outside this association. See: General Administration of the Customs...; The World Trade Organization (WTO) -https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2015_e/its15_world_trade_dev_e.pdf

accelerated development of the local energy base, as well as the manufacturing industry.

In conclusion, we note that the Chinese "silk" initiatives hardly received adequate evaluation and information coverage in Russia. Meanwhile, participation in a constructive and assertive project-at least in the form of its informational and political support (which is quite a lot, given the important symbolic role of the "silk road" offensive) - is seen by us as a necessary prerequisite for the energetic restructuring of Russian-Chinese relations and their enrichment with content that meets the spirit of the times. The five Belt and Road priorities described above look like a very timely revival of the ideology of development, an invitation, including to European countries, to discuss the concept of restoring economically viable states as engines of development and necessary guarantors of stability, peace and democratic change.

This is a relatively complete program, one way or another formulated, coordinated and energetically implemented. It is, of course, being clarified in the course of dramatic changes in the global economy and politics in the middle of this decade. Against this turbulent backdrop, China's Euro-Asian project looks historically logical, geopolitically balanced, financially secure, and easy to understand.

¹ For more information, see: Klishin V. V., Pavlov V. V. Asiatic Bank of Infrastructural Investments / / Asia and Africa Today. 2016, N 6 (Klishin V.V., Pavlov V.V. 2016. Aziatskiy bank infrastukturnych investitsyi // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 6) (in Russian)

² Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 2015.

³ This new paternalization (the previous one was carried out by Mao Zedong in the early years of the people's power) In many ways, the aggression of Western powers in Libya was facilitated, from where the PRC exemplary evacuated construction workers and thereby won the widespread sympathy of foreign Chinese. In China, it should be noted, expats are no longer encouraged to be politically neutral. Thus, about 600 prominent representatives of the diaspora from more than 100 countries were invited to the Huaqiao International Conference in Beijing in the spring of 2012. The forum was attended by almost all top leaders of the country, and their speeches, among other things, emphasized the importance of participation of foreign Chinese in the political life of their countries of residence, "achieving common goals through public diplomacy". See: Hu meets overseas Chinese organizations leaders - http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012 - 04/09/content_15007664.htm

^{Salitsky A. I., Semenova N. K.} 4 The Silk Offensive of China - http://www.perspektivy.info/oykumena/azia/shelkovoje_nastuplenije_kitaja_2016 - 01 - 11.htm

⁵ XVIII Congress of the Communist Party of China// Express-informatsiya, Moscow, IDV RAS, 2012, No. 7, p. 90.

^{Salitsky A. I., Tatsii V. V.} 6 Origin of bipolarity or co-leadership? // Vostok/Oriens. 2012. N 3; Yan Xuetong. China's rise to alter global configuration - http://en.people.en/n/2015/0518/c90883 - 8893658.html

⁷ China's military strategy. Press Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China. Beijing: Publishing House of Literature in Foreign Languages. 2015. pp. 6, 13-15.

^{Salitsky A. I., Semenova N. K.} 8 Decree. op.

⁹ Vision and Actions...

^{Jones W.} 10 Zepp-La Rouche Presents EIR's New Silk Road Report at Beijing Symposium // EIR - http://www.larouchepub.com/hzl/2015/ 4240hzl_beijing_release_landbridge.html

¹¹ Vision and Actions ..., p. 10, 29 - 32.

¹² National Bureau of the Statistics of the People's Republic of China - http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201510/t20151019_1257772.html

¹³ Key indicators for Asia and the Pasific http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/175162/ki2015.pdf

¹⁴ SCO members in one voice on deepening cooperation -http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/897012.shtml

¹⁵ U.S. property agents cater to Chinese buyers of farmland -http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2015/09 - 09/180425.shtml

¹⁶ Xinhua Insight: Pressure & prospects: Micro view of China economy - http://en.people.en/n/2015/0716/c90780 - 8921347.html

¹⁷ "Belt, Road" initiative drives economic rejuvenation of SCO countries - http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/958150.shtml

^{Li Keqiang.} 18 China and Kazakhstan intend to deepen cooperation in the field of production capacity http://russian.news.cn/china/2015 - 12/14/с_134916304.htm

¹⁹ Vision and Actions.., p. 12 - 24.

²⁰ For more information, see: Klishin V. V., Pavlov V. V. Novy bank razvitiya BRIKS [The New BRICS Development Bank]. 2015, N 9. (Klishin V.V., Pavlov V.V. 2015. Novyi bank razvitiya BRICS // Aziya i Afrika segodnya, N 9) (in Russian)

²¹ President of the People's Republic of China signed a 46 billion investment agreement in Pakistan - http://infoline.ua/main/world/Predsedatel-KNR-v-Pakistane-podpisal-investicionnoe-soglashe nie-na-46-mlrd-doll-_54243.html

²² China applies to join EBRD to build ties with Europe -http://www.ft.com/intl/world/asia-pacific/china

²³ China has applied for membership in the EBRD http://bnews.kz/ru/news/mezhdunarodnaya_panorama/kitai_podal_zayavku_na_chlenstvo_v_ ebrr-2015_10_26-1177793

^{Joseph Catanzaro.} 24 Silk Road initiative connects countries on path of prosperity. Belt and Road Initiative to recreate ancient route as massive free trade zone - a path to a new geopolitical order -http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/china-watch/business/11706380/silk-road-initiative-ch ina.

^{Huo Kan, Wang Ling, Wu Hongyuran.} 25 Investors Embrace China's Big Belt, Risky Road. A Chinese initiative to strengthen business ties abroad has sparked enthusiasm and risk warnings for companies and banks - http://english.caixin.com/2015 - 06 - 17/100820036.html

^{Aristova L. B., Semenova N. K.} 26 Energy (hydrocarbon projects) in Central Asia: potential risks and opportunities to strengthen competition between Russia and China. Moscow, IV RAS, 2014, pp. 60-67, 101.

^{Huiyun Feng.} 27 Will China and Russia Form an Alliance Against the United States? Copenhagen: Danish Institute for International Studies. 2015 - http://www.diis.dk/files/media/publications/publikationer_2015/diis_report_07_the_new_geo strategic_game_web.pdf, p. 10.

²⁸ http://lenta.ru/articles/2015/09/30/sopr/

²⁹ Oil imports to China totaled 248 million tons compared to 228 million tons in the first three quarters of 2014. It is important that natural gas is classified as a clean fuel in China, and the price reduction was aimed at expanding its consumption and reaching the planned milestone of 360 billion cubic meters by 2020.: http://www.customs.gov.cn/publish/portal0/tab49564/info774876.htm; http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/1880383/chinas-record-natural-gas-price-cu t-deals-mixed-effects-industry. http://english.caixin.com/2015 - 11 - 19/100876253.html

³⁰ Indian Railways to spend record $2,6bn buying 1,000 new trains - http://www.theguardian.com/world/20l5/nov/10/indian-railways-to-spend-record-26bn-buyin g-1000-new-trains

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